Results from the Future Care 2010 e-poll

By Clive Riddle, President, MCOL

MCOL has just released results from our eighth annual Future Care* e-poll survey conducted this month of Future Care web summit attendees and MCOL members. Almost all responses were received after the Brown Massachusetts Senate election. Respondents represented the following perspectives:

• Payor - 30.5%
• Provider - 33.6%
• Vendor - 16.4%
• Other - 19.5%

We ask participants three questions each year. First, which of the following health care business trends do you think will have the greatest overall impact in the coming year? Respondents point to health reform and the recession as the big drivers. Its also interesting to see how cost sharing increases have significantly diminished in importance last year and this year. Here’s this year’s and historical responses:

Trend	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003
Advances in technology	6%	3%	12%	8%	17%	14%	12%	11%
Consumer Driven plans	7%	3%	13%	18%	21%	23%	14%	15%
Compliance issues	7%	1%	1%	3%	1%	1%	6%	18%
Effects of the Recession	26%	57%	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Health Reform Initiatives	37%	21%	24%	11%	28%	14%	4%	N/A
Increased cost sharing	5%	9%	34%	40%	26%	38%	36%	39%
Disease Management	5%	3%	13%	8%	3%	6%	24%	N/A
Other	5%	1%	4%	12%	5%	6%	4%	17%

Conversely, we asked what predicted trends do you feel is LEAST likely to occur or have an impact in the next two years? Respondents feel health plan premium increases won’t keep cooling down, and there are plenty of health care reform skeptics:

Response	Percent
Premium Increases will continue to slow down	24%
Significant National Health Care Reform Legislation will be enacted	20%
Major growth of Consumerism initiatives	19%
Health Plan cost sharing activities will level off/slow down	13%
Further growth/adoption of disease management and wellness	12%
Major advances in patient/provider/plan electronic data transfer	11%
Other	1%

Lastly, we asked respondents to rank stakeholders as winners or losers for the coming year.  Respondents feel pharmaceutical plans will by far fare the best among stakeholders, with health plans finishing a distant second, and all other stakeholders ranked way back.  Of course the great unknown is health reform, which could significantly alter the fortunes for health plans depending on the final structure.

Sector	Better Off	Same	Worse Off
Pharmaceutical	39%	40%	21%
Health Plans	29%	30%	41%
Hospitals	16%	34%	50%
Physicians	12%	33%	55%
Consumers	8%	26%	66%
Employers	7%	35%	58%

From a historical perspective, here’s how respondents see health plans future prospects from year to year. Note that despite the potential of health reform, optimism for health plans returned a little this year, after pervasive pessimism from 2007 through 2009:

Health Plans:	Better Off	Same	Worse Off
2010	29%	30%	41%
2009	12%	44%	45%
2008	14%	36%	50%
2007	12%	41%	47%
2006	54%	35%	12%
2005	43%	42%	16%
2004	36%	50%	14%
2003	36%	44%	21%

* The Future Care survey incorporates respondents from MCOL Future Care Web Summit attendees and MCOL members. n = 131 for 2010, 90 for 2009, 127 for 2008, 146 for 2007, 267 for 2006, 110 for 2005; 118 for 2004; 139 for 2003